gpt-5.1 Analysis · Jul 28, 2026
Safe
MEDIUM RISK
gpt-5.1
86% confidence
Summary
Showers and thunderstorms with periods of heavy rain are likely this afternoon and evening under a Flood Watch, which can lead to ponding and localized flash flooding. Driving is generally possible but conditions will be notably worse during the heaviest storms and downpours.
Hourly Forecast
7 AM 11%
3 mph
8 AM 14%
5 mph
9 AM 19%
6 mph
10 AM 25%
7 mph
11 AM 33%
8 mph
12 PM 39%
9 mph
1 PM 49%
9 mph
2 PM 60%
9 mph
3 PM 62%
9 mph
4 PM 64%
10 mph
5 PM 71%
10 mph
6 PM 78%
9 mph
7 PM 74%
8 mph
8 PM 85%
8 mph
9 PM 85%
7 mph
10 PM 71%
6 mph
11 PM 59%
6 mph
Key Factors
- 01 Active Flood Watch from this morning through Wednesday evening for possible flash flooding from excessive rainfall
- 02 High probabilities of showers and thunderstorms from late morning onward, with 70–90% chance through the afternoon and night
- 03 Forecast heavy rain this afternoon and evening, with 1–2+ inches possible overnight and rainfall rates up to 1–3 inches per hour mentioned in the alert
- 04 Greatest thunderstorm and heavy-rain likelihood from about 2pm through at least 9pm, increasing risk of hydroplaning, localized flash flooding, and reduced visibility
- 05 Temperatures well above freezing, so no ice or snow concerns
- 06 Winds remain modest (generally 3–10 mph, gusts up to ~22 mph), so wind is not the primary hazard
Confidence
86%
Recommendation
If possible, plan necessary driving for a morning window between about 7:00am and 10:00am, when rain chances and storm intensity are lower. For evening travel, conditions never become completely dry, but a relatively less intense window is likely later at night between about 10:00pm and 11:00pm; avoid if you can the higher-risk period from roughly 2:00pm to 9:00pm when heavy rain and thunderstorms are most likely.