gpt-5.1 Analysis · Aug 20, 2026
Safe
MEDIUM RISK
gpt-5.1
84% confidence
Summary
Dry and calm conditions this morning give way to widespread showers and thunderstorms from midday into tonight, with a Flood Watch in effect for heavy rain and possible flash flooding. Driving is generally feasible but becomes riskier this afternoon and evening, especially in areas prone to poor drainage or flooding.
Hourly Forecast
7 AM 1%
3 mph
8 AM 3%
3 mph
9 AM 3%
3 mph
10 AM 9%
3 mph
11 AM 14%
2 mph
12 PM 23%
3 mph
1 PM 32%
5 mph
2 PM 56%
6 mph
3 PM 69%
6 mph
4 PM 80%
6 mph
5 PM 76%
7 mph
6 PM 75%
6 mph
7 PM 57%
7 mph
8 PM 46%
6 mph
9 PM 38%
6 mph
10 PM 27%
5 mph
11 PM 17%
5 mph
Key Factors
- 01 Flood Watch from noon through late tonight with potential rainfall rates of 1–3 inches per hour and localized totals of 3–5 inches, which can cause flash flooding.
- 02 Showers and thunderstorms likely from about 1pm through at least 8pm with precipitation probabilities 56–80%, increasing the risk of ponding, hydroplaning, and sudden reductions in visibility.
- 03 Multiple rounds of storms expected, so some roads may accumulate water or see rapidly changing conditions even between heavier cells.
- 04 Temperatures well above freezing (60s–80s °F), so no ice risk, but high humidity and heavy rain can still significantly impact visibility and braking distances.
- 05 Winds are light (generally 2–7 mph), so wind-related driving hazards are minimal compared to the flooding and heavy rain risk.
Confidence
84%
Recommendation
If possible, plan necessary driving for the drier, more stable window in the morning between about 8:00am and 11:00am, before storms develop. In the evening, conditions gradually improve; a relatively safer window is roughly 9:00pm to 11:00pm, when storm chances and rainfall rates decrease, but remain alert for residual standing water and any lingering showers or thunderstorms.